COVID-19

Instructions

Click on the COVID-19 information/update tab at the top of the USA website homepage (near USA bell tower picture).  This is our first Statistical Analysis Project shorter written assignment.There are few worldwide situations that generate more statistics of vital interest to millions (billions?) of inhabitants than a "pandemic."  We must read (and form our own evaluations) of their significance in understanding and dealing with the ongoing situation. https://www.southalabama.edu/coronavirus/Browse the USA site, looking for and mentally assessing the many statistics, whether local, Centers for Disease Control, World Health Organization, etc.  Find two or three major statistics that aid (or possibly mislead) in the understanding this complex, worldwide "Pandemic."  Use the Statistics Definition and Tips handout to assess these numbers as to validity, usefulness and currency (up-to-the minute application.  THIS DEFINITION AND STATISTICAL TIPS HANDOUT WILL FORM THE BASIS FOR OUR STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PROJECT, INCLUDING STUDENT WRITTEN PAPERS AND DISCUSSIONS1.  Practical definition of the field of statistics (excluding theoretical mathematical statistics):  The study of the collection, organization, and interpretation of data , including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments. (Standard Dictionary Definition).  The purpose of the study is generally to answer, or attempt to answer a key .question about almost any topic, especially those of current interest.2.  What does this famous quote about statistics indicate as far as approaching statistics (both the gathering and the disseminated results)?  There are lies, damn lies and statistics.3.  And yet, there is another quote:  Statistics dont lie.  What is the danger is taking this popular conception literally?  Is there a tendency in the general public to make up numbers to make a point, especially when the statistician feels strongly about the situation?4.  Statistics are not often indisputable facts, but may be useful as samples and indicators.  As a discipline, it may be as much an art as it is a science. 5.  Before a statistic may be applied as a tool for understanding and real-world applications, it must be analyzed for validity:  source of study, reason for study, methodology of study, scope of study, currency of study, etc.  Should the results be analyzed for their truth, also?  In what situations?6.  Statistics are normally gathered and published to answer a question (often about a serious situation or trend).  What was the question asked, and how fair, specific and measurable (quantifiable) was it?  If it attempted to measure attitudes (qualitative results), rather than actual occurrences, what type of response scale was employed?  Is this a question that a poll or survey can answer with validity (or at least clarify)?7.  Were variables crucial to the accuracy and applicability of the poll, survey, or analysis considered?  Were they published for consideration of the audience?  A cup of coffee may have cost a dime in your grandfathers time and a dollar and a half (or more) now, but what was length of time the average worker had to work to buy that coffee then versus now?8.  How far may a statistical result be generalized to other similar situations and groups without losing its validity?9.  What is the time frame for usefulness of the results of a particular study, given the fast-changing nature of attitudes and situations in the U.S. (and the world) today? 10.  Statistics should be presented both as comparative numbers and percentages, not one or the other.  The business laid off 50% its workforce at the beginning of the year.  Is this misfortune in a mom and pop convenience store that had only two paid employees, or a STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TIPS FOR EH  large corporation that had 25,000 workers?  The magnitude of the percentage is worlds apart when actual numbers are also included.11.  Is the plus or minus factor for accuracy of the statistic presented with the data?  How was it determined?  Examine the track record of the research organization which conducted the study.  Is it recognized in its field as usually presenting valid and useful conclusions?  Does it have a record for being biased in some way?12.  A statistical result may be viewed as a tool rather than an end in itself (although that holds interest in many cases).  It is seldom the final answer.  Rather, it is the material for a potentially revealing and useful cause/effect or comparison/contrast analysis. 13.  Applied statistics include two types:  descriptive statistics, in which methods are employed to summarize or describe a collection of data; and inferential statistics, in which the descriptive data is used to draw inferences (probability-type forecasts) about the process or population being studied (Wikipedia).14.  The inference is a vital element of scientific advance, since it provides a prediction (based in data) for where a theory might logically lead.  If the inference holds true, the descriptive statistics of the new data increase the soundness of a hypothesis. (Wikipedia)15.  Statistics is related to probability theory, except probability theory starts from the given parameters of a given population to deduce probabilities pertaining to samples (deduction reasoning, syllogism).  Statistical inference moves in the opposite direction, from samples to the parameters of a larger or total population (inductive reasoning).  16.  Beware of a single statistic on a hot button societal topic that is so quickly and widely accepted no one remembers the original study and when it was conducted.  It is routinely quoted as fact throughout the media, talk show, etc.  What was the origin of this number?  Was it ever validated by a series of studies? Write a two-page (can be three) double-spaced, computer-generated personal analysis and evaluation of two to three of the statistics featured there.  You do not have to bring in the many other numbers not linked on the USA site.  You may, however, compare and contrast stats from different locales at different times.  This is not a fully-formatted research project; it is your take on the impact of these numbers on your personally, your city, state, and country.  You may, however contrast the incidence in these locations with the another country--or the overall global "pandemic." Note: I am an international student from Saudi Arabia who studying in the U.S currently.Give credit to your sources in the text of the paper itself (According to the CDC, etc.)  A works cited page and copies of original sources (they are already linked on the USA website) are not required.  This is more your reasoned conclusions than a review of the printed opinions of experts that accompany most of the numbers.A key to presenting statistics in this short paper--and the fully-researched essay later--is to list each stat as a raw number and a percentage.  For example:  The number of citizens testing positive for the virus in X location has increased 100%.  Sounds disastrous, but, without the actual numbers, we don't know whether there were two afflicted citizens before and four now, or 2,000 before and 4,000 now.  Perspective and proportion are two of the keys in evaluating statistics.

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